11th - 14th September 2019

Trendspotting

We've analysed all the data from past William Hill St Leger Festivals to reveal the facts no punter should bet without knowing. Covers every aspect including trainers, jockeys, the draw, betting and breeding.

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Doncaster’s historic St Leger Festival kicks-off on Wednesday 11th September, where all four days will be televised live on Sky Sports Racing for punters to get stuck into. And if trends are your thing, then the following guide could help point up some profitable angles on Town Moor, including both trainers and jockeys.

TRAINERS – THE BIG FIVE

JOHN GOSDEN

The last two St Leger Festivals saw John Gosden produce just one winner on each occasion, admittedly low numbers for his standards – he sent out a treble during the two previous years. His latest two winners also came in the second half of the festival where Gosden struck most, including in the St Leger itself.

Best races (all-time): St Leger (3 wins); 1m Nursery (3 wins); May Hill (2 wins); Flying Scotsman (2 wins)
Positives: Friday and Saturday 11-41 (+£16); Handicaps (7-17 +£12); Top two during their last three runs (15-59 +£18)

ROGER VARIAN

Having sent out three consecutive trebles at this festival, it was back down to earth with a bang 12 months ago when Roger Varian left empty-handed. The market clearly expected better as four of his six runners started 11/4 or shorter, and not even his regular jockey, Andrea Atzeni, could get any of them in the frame – prior to that, the pair struck here at 7-30 (+£18).

Best races (all-time): Sceptre Stakes (2 wins); 1m2f Conditions Stakes (2 wins)
Positives: Not beaten more than 5l last time (11-29 +£66); 3-5 runs earlier that season (9-25 +£62); Andrea Atzeni (7-30 +£18).

RICHARD FAHEY

Having sent out 11 winners over the four days here since 2009, Richard Fahey is clearly a trainer whose runners command respect, though with 107 losers also being sent out during that period punters need to tread carefully. One approach could be to note Fahey’s runners officially rated 82-91 (9-54 +£38).

Best races (all-time): Weatherbys 2-Y-O Stakes (3 wins); 7f Handicap (2); 6.5 Handicap (2); Fillies Nursery (2)
Positives: 6.5f-7f (9-70 +£21); Officially rated 82-91 (9-54 +£38); Same class or upped in one grade from last time (8-64 +£20)

Charles Hills

Having blanked in 2016 and 2017, Charles Hills hit back with a profitable double last year , including Momentofmadness winning at 25/1. A Momentofmadness arrived at Doncaster having finished out the frame at 12/1, and that was a theme with some of Hills’s winners here, as those who went off at 12/1 or bigger the outing before Donny struck at 6-24 (+£49).

Best races (all-time): 1m Maiden (3 wins); Portland (2 wins)
Positives: 12/1 or bigger last time (6-24 +£49); Non-Group 2 events (8-57 +£43)

SAEED BIN SUROOR

While Saeed Bin Suroor doesn’t have the firepower of years gone by, he still enjoys sending out a winner or two here, as was the case 12 months ago when Royal Marine won the 7f juvenile maiden. The younger brigade also served Suroor well on Turf Moor, striking on 10 occasions (10-22 +£8).

Best races (all-time): 1m2f Conditions Stakes (7 wins); St Leger (4 wins); Flying Scotsman (3)
Positives: 2yo’s (10-22 +£8); Up in class (17-26 +£21); Top two last time (12-27 +£17)

Others To Note

There are a clutch of other names worth looking out for on Town Moor, including Richard Hannon Junior, who boasts a good record in the juvenile events with victories in the Flying Childers and 1m Nursery. Elsewhere, David Simcock had success in races over 7f or further – Thursday’s 1m2f handicap in particular proving very kind. The final few mentions go to William Haggas in non-Group races at 7-25 (+£17), and Aidan O’Brien, whose runners that won during their previous three runs won again here at 7-36 (+£31).

JOCKEYS – THE BIG FIVE

ANDREA ATZENI

Andrea Atzeni’s record at this festival goes from strength to strength, having ridden an astonishing 25 winners during the last five renewals. Atzeni simply has to be the first port-of-call for punters hoping to profit, as he returned a healthy level stakes return of +£61. Distances of 6.5f or further saw Atzeni at his best, especially in the 1m2f Handicap staged on Thursday.

Best races (all-time): 1m2f Handicap (3 wins); 1m4f Handicap (2); St Leger (2); Park Stakes (2); Sceptre Stakes (2); 1m Nursery (2); 1m2f Classified Stakes (2); 1m2f Conditions Stakes (2)
Positives: 6.5f or further (26-83 +£79); Roger Varian (7-30 +£18); 

FRANKIE DETTORI

These are indeed memorable times for Frankie Dettori, who is certainly enjoying the twilight of his career by winning numerous big races, and the St Leger Festival has always proven kind to the Italian. He left with one winner 12 months ago courtesy of Too Darn Hot in the Champagne Stakes – Dettori’s sixth win in the race.

Best races (all-time): Champagne Stakes (6 wins); Flying Childers (5); May Hill (4); 1m2f Conditions Stakes (4); St Leger (3)
Positives: Straight track (16-71 +£8); Last-time-out winner (11-35 +£7)

RYAN MOORE

With 10 winners during the last two St Leger Festivals alone, Ryan Moore will again be a jockey the bookies fear when pricing-up the odds on Town Moor. Moore is effective on the Straight Track, but has a better record around the bend, with four of last year’s haul of five winners coming on the Round Course.

Best races (all-time): Doncaster Cup (4 wins); Sceptre Stakes (3); Scarbrough Stakes (3); 1m2f Classified Stakes (3)
Positives: Round Course (12-39 +£6); Not beaten more than 4l last time (16-70 +£11); Moore rode last time (6-23 +£7); Clear favourites (8-19 +£6)

WILLIAM BUICK

William Buick left this four-day festival with at least one winner from each visit during the last decade, including a profitable double 12 months ago. Although Buick has a long-term profitable record with John Gosden (6-32 +£7), his last 10 winners at the festival came for other trainers, two of whom were for Charlie Appleby.

Best races (all-time): 1m handicap (3 wins); St Leger (2); Portland (2); 1m4f Handicap (2); Fillies Nursery (2)
Positives: Beaten under 2l last time (9-39 +£28); Straight Track (12-80 +£16)

JAMIE SPENCER

The hurly-burly of big fields at festivals suits Jamie Spencer’s come-from-behind riding style, hence why he left this festival with at least one winner during the last decade. While the Irishman is effective on both tracks, he delivered at a higher strike-rate for bigger profits on the Round Course, winning the Mallard Handicap on four occasions. In fact, this festival is Spencer’s most successful, with a superb long-term return of 29-160 (+£72) since 2003 – compare that to the Epsom Derby festival where Spencer struck at only 2-88 (-£73).

Best races (all-time): Mallard Handicap (4 wins); 1m2f Handicap (3 wins); Sceptre Stakes (2)
Positives: Round Course (7-25 +£41); 9-16 runners 9-44 (+£54); Charles Hills (2-8 +£ 17); David Simcock (2-12 +£17)

Others To Note

The above five jockeys should be among the winners at Donny, but there are a few more of interest, namely Paul Hanagan and Silvestre De Silva. The former delivered in smaller fields of six to nine runners (9-37 +£44), similar comments that apply to the latter, with 10 of his last 11 winners here coming in fields of four to ten runners (10-49). De Silva also did the business on fancied runners at 6/1 or shorter (10-35 +£5)

FORM

Looking back at last year’s St Leger Festival shows that of the 29 winners across four days, seven came via Goodwood last time out for a tidy profit (7-34 +£26). A glance at the below list shows that Goodwood also ranks in top three tracks to have supplied the most Donny winners during the last 10 years.

St Leger Festival 2009-2018

Track last timeW-R£1
York47-588-185
Newmarket (July)40-288-33
Goodwood36-303-41
Ascot16-152-51
Newbury15-115-20
Haydock14-135+97
Sandown13-119-36
Chester8-102-34
Thirsk7-73+17

With both York and Newmarket (July) supplying 87 winners between them since 2009, last time out form from both venues needs respecting, especially those that came from a Group 2 race at Goodwood (10-55 +£15), while those won last time out at Newmarket struck on Town Moor at 23-84 (+£20).

As for which York runners to follow here, then it could be worth giving those beaten by 1/4l to 3l on the Knavesmire, as they gained compensation here to the tune of 16-122 (+£29) – Kew Gardens (3/1), Mustashry (5/2) and The Great Heir (33/1) all examples 12 months ago.

A mention also goes to Haydock, whose runners here showed a very healthy profit, more so the ones whose official rating was the same to 6lb higher than at Haydock (13-96 +£131).

Group/Listed Races

St Leger Festival 2009-2018

Last time outW-R£1
Newmarket (July)16-71+37



Won37-251-55
Runner-up13-122-44
Third14-106+18
Fourth9-86-24
Fifth to eighth17-204-68
Ninth or worse6-93-17
Debut or first run in Britain0-7-7



Up in trip from last time42-391-97
Same trip as last time37-321-91
Down in trip from last time17-152-4



Up in class by two grades or more from last time26-344-138
Up in class by one grade from last time29-203+18
Same class as last time30-233-67
Down in class by one or two grades from last time9-69+2
Down in class by three grades from last time2-15-8

When weighing-up a punt in the major Group/Listed events at Donny, then again it could pay to give extra attention to those arriving from Newmarket’s July Course, as they clicked here for a profitable record of 16-71 (+£37).

As for the class angle, then runners moving up in grade by one notch from last time out – for instance, a horse that ran in a Group 3 before Group 2 company at Doncaster – returned a clear profit; an example from 2018 was Fleeting, who won the Group 2 May Hill at 12/1 having previously raced in a Group 3 at the Curragh.

It’s also worth considering runners in Group/Listed events that arrived on Town Moor having been rested for 46-120 days as they showed at 27-155 (+£91) – in other words, they may have been targeted for a race.

Handicaps

St Leger Festival 2009-2018

Last time outW-R£1
Won27-279-128
Beaten short head, head or neck6-52-14
Beaten 1/4l to 3l40-346+30
Beaten 3.05l or more53-840-256



6-9 previous handicap runs24-192+19



Maiden14-110+17



Thirsk (7), Windsor (4)11-82+88

There will be a number of competitive handicaps for punters to chew over across the four days, with some big-priced winners lurking. The first approach to riches could be via several trainers who racked up the profits in handicaps, namely Charles Hills (5-28 +£31), David Simcock (6-31 +£14) and Richard Fahey (8-67 +£7).

Looking at a horse’s last time out form is another angle in handicaps, as those beaten 1/4l to 5l last time struck at 61-574 (+£49). Applying a further filter to such runners helped increase profits, with those beaten 1/4l to 5l at 9/2 to 9/1 last time going in here at 28-210 (+£85) – Von Blucher a recent example having been beaten 4l at 7/1 before winning the 6.5f handicap here at 25/1.

DRAW

There isn’t a major Flat Festival that passes without the draw having an impact in competitive fields, and the figures below list highlights how the draw worked out on Doncaster’s straight course so far in 2019, along with the previous five St Leger Festivals (with 14 runners or more).

Doncaster 2019 – Straight Course (14 runners or more)

5f: 16-5-15 (17 ran, good)
6f: 7-5-4 (15 ran, good to firm)
6f: 12-19-8 (17 ran, good)
6f: 8-15-7 (17 ran, good to firm)
6f: 6-7-2 (15 ran, good)
6f: 8-18-5 (17 ran, good to firm)
7f: 6-4-18 (17 ran, soft)
7f: 12-16-8 (16 ran, good)
7f: 17-1-13 (14 ran, good)
7f: 8-19-15 (19 ran, good to firm)
1m: 17-22-11 (19 ran, good)
1m: 3-10-16 (16 ran, good)

Summary: The story of the draw in 2019 shows that of the 14 races to have taken place on the Straight Course (with 14 runners or more), 12 were won by a horse from the middle to high stalls. The results also highlight the poor record of runners from stalls 1-5, as they struck just once.

Recent St Leger Festivals – Straight Course (14 runners or more)

5f Handicap
2018: N/A (less than 14 runners)
2017: 3-2-11 (15 ran, soft)
2016: N/A (less than 14 runners)
2015: 11-6-7 (15 ran, good)
2014: 4-10-2 (20 ran, good)

5½f Portland Handicap
2018: 18-11-8 (21 ran, good)
2017: 22-8-18 (22 ran, gd-sft)
2016: 12-1-9 (20 ran, good)
2015: 10-15-1 (20 ran, good)
2014: 15-9-21 (20 ran, good)

6f Handicap
2018: 11-7-8 (18 ran, good)
2017: N/A (less than 14 runners)
2016: 10-9-12 (20 ran, good)
2015: 11-1-16 (20 ran, good)
2014: 3-8-14 (18 ran, good)

6½f Nursery
2018: N/A (less than 14 runners)
2017: N/A (less than 14 runners)
2016: N/A (less than 14 runners)
2015: 20-19-6 (19 ran, good)
2014: 11-3-13 (17 ran, good)

6½f Weatherbys Stakes
2018: 3-11-4 (22 ran, good)
2017: 3-15-2 (22 ran, good to soft)
2016: 16-3-22 (19 ran, good)
2015: 20-21-8 (22 ran, good)
2014: 20-11-6 (21 ran, good)

7f Sceptre Stakes
2018: N/A (less than 14 runners)
2017: N/A (less than 14 runners)
2016: N/A (less than 14 runners)
2015: 4-15-8 (20 ran, good)
2014: 9-4-16 (15 ran, good)

7f Handicap
2018: N/A (less than 14 runners)
2017: N/A (less than 14 runners)
2016: N/A (less than 14 runners)
2015: 4-15-8 (20 ran, good)
2014: N/A (less than 14 runners)

1m Classified Stakes
2018: 1-2-6 (16 ran, good to soft)
2017: 3-5-6 (14 ran, soft)
2016: 16-6-9 (14 ran, good to soft)
2015: 7-19-10 (16 ran, good)
2014: 2-16-17 (16 ran, good)

The chunkier fields took place over sprint distances at this festival in recent years, with 7f races not attracting big fields. Punters looking to get stuck into the sprints may again opt for those in the middle to high stalls, as the winner emerged from that area in 14 of the 19 sprints – low numbers entered the picture more on softer ground.

BREEDING

Leading sires at Doncaster 2016–2019

SireW-R£15f-6.5f7f-1m1m2f-1m4fGd/ Gd-fmGd-sft/ Sft
Dubawi20-128-561-78-629-4512-408-46
Kodiac19-149-1713-803-542-1211-1008-49
Invincible Spirit17-109+687-378-562-189-538-56
Dark Angel16-153-624-4610-832-249-897-64
Oasis Dream13-87+208-295-370-206-467-41
Exceed And Excel13-124-498-765-430-59-854-39
Pivotal12-90-146-393-323-1810-472-43
Lope De Vega11-74-192-185-334-213-398-35
Mastercraftsman11-77-241-41-239-438-553-22
Iffraaj11-89-353-437-401-137-484-41
New Approach11-50-140-42-189-245-266-24
Dandy Man10-71+147-473-230-15-425-29
Sea The Stars10-50-30-23-137-297-383-12

The 2018 St Leger Festival saw Zoffany, Camacho and Dark Angel responsible for two winners apiece, and the latter has long been a provider of winners at this galloping track. Only three sires supplied more winners at Doncaster during the last four years, namely Dubawi, Kodiac and Invincible Spirit, and that trio’s runners along with Dark Angel’s should be noted throughout the four days.

As for specific areas in which the aforementioned quartet’s stock excelled over, then Dubawi’s coped with most trips and ground, which could see both his entries in the Park Stakes, Space Blues and Glorious Journey, go well. Kodiac on the other hand, is a sire whose runners deserve a second look should rain arrive as they preferred softer ground, while Dark Angel’s hit the bullseye over 7f-1m. As for the sprints, then look out for Invincible Spirit’s entries, including Harpocrates, who improved when a runner-up in York’s Acomb Stakes recently, and could enjoy both the drop in class and trip when tackling the Weatherby’s 2-Y-O Stakes.

When it comes to Group races, then it could be worth considering the following sires throughout the four days, as they provided the most recent Group winners during 2019 so far.

Group races in 2019 - all tracks (GB & Ireland)

Galileo 19-126 (+£1)
Sea The Stars 9-40 (-£16)
Shamardal 8-37 (+£22)

Galileo may not feature on the Doncaster leaderboard, but his runners continue to do the business in major Group races this year, as do Sea The Stars’s, who has produced 10 winners at this track in recent years – his runners would be of interest over middle-distances.

BETTING

Favourites – St Leger Festival 2009-2018

Clear/joint favouriteW-R£1
Overall95-311+3



Non-handicap61-166+21
Handicap34-145-18



Group 13-11+4
Group 224-62+7
Group 30-8-8
Listed9-19+11



2yo42-107+9
3yo27-103-6
4yo14-53+4
5yo+12-48-4

Favourite backers looking to get the money on Town Moor will be pleased to learn the jolly finished in profit at this festival, especially in non-handicaps. Indeed, non-handicap favourites won twice as often than those in the big-field handicaps, with seven hitting the target 12 months ago (7-16 +£2). Digging a bit deeper also shows that non-handicap favourites in the 10/11 to 13/2 bracket showed both a higher strike-rate and profit at 45-109 (+£33). It’s worth noting that favourites were less productive on Thursday (10-38 -£6), though, with both Friday/Saturday proving best (36-86 +£19).

The fact clear favourites came out in front across the board here is still a testament to how often they’ve struck, compared to the other major Flat festival, as can be seen below.

Clear Favourites at major Flat festivals 2009-2018

FestivalW-R£1
St Leger85-255+11
Royal Ascot83-2760
Glorious Goodwood93-313-1
Newmarket Guineas38-125-13
Irish Guineas44-138-14
King George Ascot471-63-23
Galway86-254-24
Epsom Derby34-124-26
Newmarket July52-196-28
Irish Derby60-211-52
York Ebor52-221-53

Second Favourites – St Leger Festival 2009-2018

Second favourite (Clear)W-R£1
Overall47-288-59



Non-handicap29-161-42
Handicap18-127-17



Group 11-13-9
Group 215-61+3
Group 32-80
Listed1-17-11



2yo17-104-25
3yo9-69-28
4yo12-48+12
5yo+4-36-15

With favourites enjoying such a good time of it at Donny, second favourites naturally played second fiddle, although looking out for those narrowly beaten last time by under 1l produced a profit at 9-28 (+£24).

Knowing when to side with a favourite or second favourite can also prove handy when playing the Placepot, especially when using the jolly as a “banker” in a perm, and the following analysis highlights races where both the first two in the market performed well in recent years here.

Such patterns involving those at the head of the betting are just some approaches to be considered with a Placepot – or even for those looking to bet each-way – as the following analysis reveals a number of recent trends to have favoured certain runners making the frame, such as Wednesday’s Scarbrough Stakes, where 23 of the last 28 placed runners were officially rated 101 or higher.

THE DONNY PLACEPOT

Wednesday

Day One’s Totepool dividends (last five years, latest first):
£226; £1,010; £232; £231; £166 = Average: £373

1:50: 6f EBF Conditions Stakes

Of the last 19 placed runners during the last 10 years…

13 had 2-4 four career runs
12 were officially rated 101-106 or had no rating (12-25) – others were 7-31
12 arrived via Newmarket (July), Newbury, Ripon or York
10 were dropped in class from last time (10-19) – others were 6-36
K Burke (2-3) and T Dascombe (2-4) both had two placed.

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
7/2 or shorter: 12-22
4/1 to 8/1: 5-14
17/2 or bigger: 2-20

Favourites place record: 5-10
Second-favourites place record: 4-10

PLACEPOT TIP: Both of last year’s placed runners had 2-4 career runs.

2:25: 7f Nursery

Of the last 27 placed runners during the last 10 years…

25 were male
23 ran over 6f-7f last time
23 carried 8st10lb or more
M Bell (2-4), C Hills (2-4), B Meehan (2-3), R Fahey (2-10) and M Johnston (2-5) all had two placed

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
9/2 or shorter: 11-20
5/1 to 10/1: 12-38
11/1 or bigger: 4-36

Favourites place record: 8-11
Second-favourites place record: 4-11

PLACEPOT TIP: Fancied runners emerged best – last year’s 1-2 came from the first two in the market.

3.00: 5f Scarbrough Stakes

Of the last 28 placed runners during the last 10 years…

26 ran during the last 11-45 days
24 were 2-5yos
23 were officially rated 101 or higher (23-59) – others were 5-38
22 never won a Listed race
22 had 1-5 career wins in Britain
14 arrived via Goodwood (6), York (6) & Beverley (4)
R Cowell (6-9), B Smart (2-7), C Cox (2-4), & R Varian (2-3) had 12 placed between them

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
6/4 to 11/4 or shorter: 7-10
3/1 to 7/1: 12-29
17/2 to 16/1: 7-36
18/1 or bigger: 2-22

Favourite placed: 9-11
Second favourite placed: 3-9

PLACEPOT TIP: Both of last year’s placed runners were officially rated 104 and 106.

3.35: 1m Legends Classified Stakes

Of the last 27 placed runners during the last nine years…

26 made the top four during their last three runs
24 were male
24 arrived via a handicap
23 were officially rated 69-70
22 were 4-7yos

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
5/1 or shorter: 7-12
11/2 to 9/1: 7-30
10/1 to 22/1: 12-63
25/1 or bigger: 1-34

Favourites place record: 6-10
Second-favourites place record: 2-6

PLACEPOT TIP: Handicap form proved best.

4:10: 1m4f Fillies’ Handicap

Of the 8 placed runners during the last three years…

6 were officially rated 86 or higher
5 returned 10/1 or bigger

Favourites place record: 3-3
Second-favourites place record: 0-4

PLACEPOT TIP: A fairly new race, but consider banking on the favourite.

4:45: 1m2f Conditions Stakes

Of the last 17 placed runners during the last 10 years…

13 were 3-4yos
13 came via Sandown (3), Goodwood (3), Windsor (3), Epsom (2) & York (2)
12 ran over 1m2f or shorter last time (13-30) – others were 4-18
S Bin Suroor (3-9), R Varian was 2-2. Placed runners breakdown of odds:
11/4 or shorter: 9-19
7/2 to 11/1: 6-20
12/1 or bigger: 2-12
Favourites place record: 4-10
Second-favourites place record: 5-10

PLACEPOT TIP: Younger runners (3-4yos) were placed more often than older runners – last year’s four-runner race saw a 4yo beat a 7yo.

Thursday

Day Two’s Totepool dividends (last five years, latest first):
£22,968; £401; £27; £5,101; £1,270 = Average: £5,953

1.50: 6.5f Fillies’ Nursery

Of the last 34 placed runners during the last 10 years…

32 were officially rated 74-88
26 won just once during their career in Britain
23 made the top two last time out
20 arrived via Newmarket July (8), Ripon (4), Salisbury (4), Leicester (4)
19 ran in a nursery last time (19-67) – others were 15-79
R Fahey (4-9), R Eddery (3-3), K Burke (3-4), M Johnston (2-11)

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
7/4 to 9/2: 6-11
5/1 to 11/1: 20-44
12/1 to 28/1: 8-72
33/1 or bigger: 0-19

Favourites place record: 7-12
Clear second-favourites place record: 6-9

PLACEPOT TIP: The first three home in 2018 won just one race earlier in their career.

2.25: Group 2 May Hill Stakes 1m

Of the last 25 placed runners during the last 10 years…

25 won 1-2 races in Britain
22 won during their last three runs
21 were beaten no more than 3l last time
10 arrived via Newmarket July (10-23)
R Hannon Jnr (3-7), R Becket (2-2), C Appleby (2-2), S Bin Suroor (2-4), M Johnston (2-4)

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
7/2 or shorter: 9-15
4/1 to 8/1: 4-19
9/1 to 14/1: 11-26
16/1 or bigger: 2-20

Favourite/joint finished: 6-10
Second favourites finished: 5-11

PLACEPOT TIP: Last year’s first three home returned 12/1, 12/1 & 14/1 – one of whom arrived via Newmarket, a track that proved a solid pointer.

3.00 Group 2 Park Hill Stakes 1m6f

Of the last 28 placed runners during the last 10 years…

28 were 3-4yos
20 won during their last three runs
19 ran during the last 21-45 days
18 arrived via Goodwood (8), York (7) & Newmarket July (3)
15 were trained by J Gosden (4-8), R Beckett (3-7), Sir M Stoute (2-6), M Bell (2-3), D Lanigan (2-2), M Johnston (2-3)
16 ran in a Group race last time (16-35) – others were 12-63

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
7/2 or shorter: 9-17
4/1 to 6/1: 5-12
13/2 to 16/1: 10-35
18/1 or bigger: 4-35

Favourite finished: 6-13
Second favourites finished: 5-8

PLACEPOT TIP: During the last two renewals, four of the five placed runners arrived via Goodwood (2) or York (2).

3.35: Weatherbys Stakes 6.5f

Of the last 30 placed runners during the last 10 years…

27 were males
24 ran in a Class 1 or 2 race last time
22 arrived via York (16), Newmarket July (3), Newbury (3)
22 ran in a race worth more than £13k last time (22-94) – others were 8-115
18 were trained by R Fahey (5-39), W Haggas (3-4), R Hannon Jnr (2-16), K Ryan (2-14), M Channon (2-11), H Palmer (2-2), T Easterby (2-3)
18 ran during the last 16-25 days
14 were officially rated 94 or higher (34%) – those lower were 16-168 (9%)

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
6/1 or shorter: 7-21
7/1 to 9/1: 1-15
10/1 to 14/1: 9-27
16/1 to 33/1: 10-80
40/1 or bigger: 3-66

Favourites place record: 5-10
Second-favourites place record: 1-12

PLACEPOT TIP: Look for value in the 10/1 to 14/1 range.

4:10: Lady Riders Handicap 6f

(Only two renewals)

Of the last 7 placed runners…

6 were drawn in stalls 7-12 (6-11) – others were 1-20
6 were 14-1 or shorter
2 were trained by P Midgely (2), T Easterby (2)

4:40: Sky Sports Racing Handicap 1m2f

Of the last 26 placed runners during the last 10 years…

25 ran in a handicap last time
22 ran in a Class 2 race last time
20 had 1-3 handicap wins (20-52) – others were 6-29
19 were beaten no less than 10l last time
17 were drawn in stall 4-9 (17-46) – others were 9-40
16 were officially rated 93-98 (16-46) – others were 10-40
10 were trained by S Bin Suroor (2-8), W Haggas (2-4), C Hills (2-2), M Johnston (2-8), D Simcock (2-5)

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
7/1 or shorter: 21-43
15/2 to 14/1: 4-20
16/1 or bigger: 1-23

Favourites place record: 5-10
Second-favourites place record: 6-10

PLACEPOT TIP: Concentrate on runners with 1-3 handicap wins.

Friday

Day Three’s Totepool dividends (last five years, latest first):
£149; £6; £1,079; £56; £156 = Average: £289

1.50: Group 3 Sceptre Stakes 7f

Of the last 29 placed runners during the last 10 years…

27 had never won a Class 1 race
24 made the top five last time
21 had 0-1 wins over 7f
17 arrived via Goodwood (7), Newmarket (4), York (3) & Pontefract (3)
8 were trained by R Varian (3-4), M Botti (3-7), & W Haggas (2-6)

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
4/1 or shorter: 8-15
9/2 to 8/1: 5-20
17/2 to 22/1: 11-48
22/1 or bigger: 5-41

Favourites place record: 4-10
Second favourites place record: 5-10

PLACEPOT TIP: Ignore runners who already won a Class 1 event – last year, the 11-4 favourite, Laugh Aloud, was a Listed/Group 3 winner, but managed only fifth.

2.25: Group 2 Flying Childers 5f

Of the last 29 placed runners during the last 10 years…

25 had 3-6 career runs in Britain
23 were officially rated 99 or higher
21 arrived via York (14), Goodwood (4) & Newbury (3)
16 ran in a Group race last time (16-38) – others were 13-61
R Hannon Jnr (5-6)

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
9/2 or shorter: 10-19
5/1 to 10/1: 13-34
11/1 to 25/1: 4-29
28/1 or bigger: 2-18

Favourites finished: 5-11
Second favourites finished: 4-11

PLACEPOT TIP: The 2018 renewal saw Richard Hannon Jnr train the runner-up – his fourth placed runner form just five entries.

3.00: Mallard Handicap 1m6f

Of the last 31 placed runners during the last 10 years…

27 won a handicap
21 had never run over 1m6f
20 made the top two during their last three runs
20 arrived via York (9), Haydock (4), Goodwood (4) & Chester (3)
18 were officially rated 86-98
J Goldie (3-4), M Johnston (5-11), J Fanshawe (2-5), Sir M Stoute (2-3) & D Simcock (2-3), A King (2-3)

5/1 or shorter: 6-16
11/2 to 8/1: 10-26
17/2 to 20/1: 10-51
22/1 or bigger: 3-18

Favourites/joint place record: 5-11
Second-favourites place record: 4-11

PLACEPOT TIP: Two of last year’s three placed runners had yet to race over 1m6f.

3.35: Group 2 Doncaster Cup 2m2f

Of the last 27 placed runners during the last 10 years…

25 were males
21 were beaten no more than 5l last time (21-42) – others were 6-45
19 arrived via York (14) or Goodwood (5)
19 ran in a Group race last time (19-49) – others were 8-37
13 were trained by W Mullins (4-8), D Simcock (4-7), Sir M Prescott (3-8) & J Fanshawe (2-2)
3yos were placed 5-6

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
4/1 or shorter: 11-17
9/2 to 8/1: 13-29
17/2 or bigger: 3-41

Favourite/joint finished: 7-10
Second favourites finished: 4-10

PLACEPOT TIP: Consider runners trained by Willie Mullins or David Simcock.

4:10: Flying Scotsman Listed Stakes 7f

Of the last 20 placed runners during the last 10 years…

17 ran in a non-Group race last time
16 had 1 or 3 UK runs
16 ran over 7f last time
15 were drawn in stalls 2-5
15 made the top two last time out
14 arrived via Newmarket July (7), Newbury (4) or York (3)

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
9/2 or shorter: 15-22
5/1 or bigger: 5-36

Favourites place finished: 8-10
Second favourites finished: 6-10

PLACEPOT TIP: Look for those that ran in a handicap last time.

4.45: EBF Maiden Stakes 7f

Only one renewal

Saturday

Final day’s Totepool dividends (last five years, latest first):
£18; £112; £236; £176; £14 = Average: £111

1.50: Portland Handicap 5.5f

Of the last 40 placed runners during the last 10 years…

37 ran in a Class 2 or lower last time
37 ran in handicap last time
30 ran arrived via York (9), Haydock (6), Ripon (5), Ascot (4), Thirsk (3), Doncaster (3)
29 were 3-5yos (29-136) – others were 11-73
27 were drawn in stall 11 or higher
27 were officially rated 93-98
26 had 2-4 career wins
21 were trained by K Ryan (6-20), G Baker (4-5), R Varian (3-5), T Easterby (2-11), D Marnane (2-2), R Harris (2-9), C Hills (2-5)

Placed runners breakdown of odds: 7/1 or shorter: 9-17
15/2 to 12/1: 7-49
14/1 to 22/1: 16-70
25/1 or bigger: 8-73

Favourite/joint finished: 6-13
Second favourites finished: 3-7

PLACEPOT TIP: Stalls 11 or higher did best, including three of last year’s four placed runners from stalls 18, 11 & 15.

2.25: Group 2 Park Stakes 7f

Of the last 27 placed runners during the last 10 years…

24 were officially rated 109 or higher
24 were placed during their last three runs
21 were 4-6yos
20 were beaten no less than 4l last time
16 arrived via Goodwood (11) or Newbury (5)
10 were trained by E Lynam (2-4), C Cox (2-4), D Simcock (2-5), W Haggas (2-3), J Gosden (2-4) & C Wall (2-2)

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
5/1 or shorter: 16-26
4/1 to 8/1: 9-31
9/1 or bigger: 7-40

Favourites finished: 7-10
Second favourites finished: 4-11

PLACEPOT TIP: 4-6yos proved best – an age bracket that filled all three places in 2018.

3.00 Group 2 Champagne Stakes 7f

Of the last 19 placed runners during the last 10 years…

16 were placed last time
16 ran over 7f last time
16 came via York (5), Goodwood (5), Newmarket July (2), Sandown (2), Newbury (2)
14 won over 7f
12 were trained by A O’Brien (3-9), S Bin Suroor (3-4), C Hills (2-4), C Appleby (2-4) & W Haggas (2-3)
11 were officially rated 103 or higher (11-21) – others were 8-37

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
11/4 or shorter: 11-15
3/1 to 8/1: 7-21
9/1 or bigger: 1-22

Favourite/joint finished: 8-11
Second favourites finished: 4-10

PLACEPOT TIP: Consider banking on the favourite – last year, Too Darn Hot won at 4-11.

3.35: Group 1 St Leger Stakes

Of the last 29 placed runners during the last 10 years…

27 ran in a Group race last time
27 had an official rating of 108 or more
23 made the top three last time
23 moved up in trip (23-67) – others were 6-30
22 were trained by A O’Brien (8), J Gosden (6), Sir M Stoute (3), R Beckett (3) and S Bin Suroor (2)
21 came via York (10), Goodwood (6), Curragh (5)

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
9/2 or shorter: 11-18
5/1 to 15/2: 8-18
17/2 to 20/1: 6-31
22/1 or bigger: 3-28

Favourite finished: 8-11
Second favourites finished: 5-13

PLACEPOT TIP: Look for those that made the top three in a Group race last time.

4.10: Nursery 1m

Of the last 27 placed runners during the last 10 years…

26 were males
24 had 0-1 UK career wins
25 had never won a nursery
20 made the last two last time
20 made their nursery debut
17 had never raced over 1m
10 trained by R Hannon Jnr (5-7), J Gosden (3-4), P Cole (2-2)

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
7/2 or shorter: 14-18
4/1 to 6/1: 5-16
13/2 to 16/1: 5-31
18/1 or bigger: 3-20

Favourites/joint place record: 11-12
Second favourites place record: 4-9

PLACEPOT TIP: Stick with favourites – 12 months ago, Rajinksy was third at 11/4.

4.45: Handicap 1m

Of the last 30 placed runners during the last 10 years…
26 ran in a handicap last time
26 were officially rated 93-104
22 ran over 1m last time
21 ran in a Class 2 event last time
20 were drawn in stalls 4-10

20 arrived via York (10), Goodwood (6), Ascot (4)
18 were beaten over 2l-10l last time

18 were 3-4yos (18-44) – others were 11-55
16 won during their last three runs (16-34) – others were 13-65
10 were trained by S Bin Suroor (4-6), W Haggas (2-3), M Tregoning (2-3), D O’Meara (2-7)
Placed runners breakdown of odds:
7/1 or shorter: 20-42
8/1 to 14/1: 7-30
14/1 or bigger: 2-27
Favourites/joint place record: 7-11
Second favourites place record: 5-10

PLACEPOT TIP: Stick with runners that raced over 1m last time – the only runner in last year’s five-runner field that raced over 1m2f last time managed only fourth of five.

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