Updated 8:51, 8.58, 9.18, 9.34 - all selections online.
LAST SURPRISE was an impressive winner on her latest all-weather start, ran a cracking race in a class 2 event at Newmarket last time, and can outclass her opposition in the 7f nursery at Wolverhampton (6.55).
A wide-margin winner at Lingfield over 6f in June, she kept her uneaten record on the all-weather at Chelmsford over the same distance two outings ago, briefly looking set to face a battle off a steady pace but asserting in the closing stages and well on top at the line.
That didn’t look a bad novice, and the other strong finisher, third-placed Bill The Butcher won by a wide margin at Southwell next time. Moreover, the time was only 0.18 seconds slower than that record by the 72-rated 3yo winner later on the card, but Last Surprise’s race was run at a much steadier gallop.
She then ran a cracking race when third in a hot class 2 fillies’ handicap at Newmarket, probably helped by her track position making the running against the rail, but still doing well to finish third.
She drops in grade from class 2 to class 4 here whereas her nearest market rival Lets Go Lucky, who did record a decent time figure last time, is stepping up from class 6. Fair Pass caught the eye last time and is another to consider, but Last Surprise looks the class act here.
SWINLEY ran a huge race last time at Kempton and might be the one to bet in the opening 5f nursery at Wolverhampton (5.25).
Poorly drawn at Kempton on his all-weather debut last time, he ended up wide all the way round the bend and in the circumstances did really well to finish strongly into third.
That suggested he’s well up to winning on the all-weather off his current mark, and although he is again drawn wider than ideal, he looks worth the chance to confirm the positive impression he made at Kempton.
MAJDOOL was selected in this column last time, and the same concerns raised last time about the form of his stable still apply, but he still looks overpriced in the 7f handicap at Newcastle (8.05).
His stable has had only one winner all year, but a handful of its runners have run creditably at big odds in recent weeks and Majdool himself didn’t shape badly from a poor position at Chelmsford last time, having to wait for a run on the home turn.
He’s very well handicapped on the pick of his all-weather form, now only 2lb higher than when trouncing his rivals at Wolverhampton just under a year ago.
Sophia Maria is another to consider with headgear refitted, but Majdool is preferred.
KILBAHA LADY has been running consistently well lately and must have a strong chance in the 1m2f handicap at Newcastle (5.00).
She finished second over this course and distance three outings ago, pulling clear with winner Home Before Dusk and third-placed Ad Libitum, both of whom have won here subsequently.
She shaped as if still in form at Chelmsford last time, remains fairly handicapped on this surface, and looks poised for another big run.
Hugh's Best Bets (scale 1-5 points):
1pt win KILBAHA LADY (15-2 William Hill, 7-1 Betfred, bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes, 6-1 general)
2pts win SWINLEY (9-2 general)
1pt win LAST SURPRISE (2-1 general)
1pt win MAJDOOL (25-1 bet365, William Hill, 20-1 Betfred, Coral, Ladbrokes)
Hugh gives a daily indication of when the column will be published via Twitter.com (username is HughRacing). You can also listen to a Final Furlong Podcast special in which Hugh explains the methodology behind the column here.
Hugh recorded a profit of +345pts in 2018, and a ROI of 1.55, his highest ever. With regards to Betfair SP, Hugh recorded a profit of +66pts (ROI of 1.11) before commission. You can view his monthly figures by clicking the links below:
2018 results ROI 1.55 +345pts
2017 results ROI 1.46 +282pts
2016 results ROI 1.44 +281pts
2015 results ROI 1.34 +207pts
2014 results ROI 1.32 +199.79pts
2013 results ROI 1.32 +210pts
2012 results ROI 1.31 +222.65pts
2011 results ROI 1.28 +302.64 pts
2010 results ROI 1.23 +324.79 pts
2009 results ROI 1.26 +500.36 pts