Updated 9.18, 9.56 - all selections online
Most eyes will be on Noble Dynasty in the second division of the 7f novice event at Kempton (6.45) and it won’t be surprising if the odds-on favourite wins easily, but he is returning from a significant absence and at the odds I’d rather side with RIFLEMAN.
Noble Dynasty was highly touted before his debut at Newmarket in June, understandably as he’s a Dubawi half-brother to Barney Roy and cots 3,600,000 guineas as a yearling. He ran really well and shaped as if today’s extra furlong would suit, so it’s no surprise that he’s a short-priced favourite.
However, his absence since that debut is a concern, whereas Rifleman does have a recent run.
The level of form he achieved on that debut at Newbury last month is some way behind that of the favourite, but he was patently green in the first half of the stages and ultimately shaped well, making good late progress away from where the race unfolded.
One or two horses that raced on the same part of the track have produced good runs either prior to that race or subsequently, and I think Rifleman’s run is better than the bare form suggests.
Whether he can improve enough to trouble the favourite remains to be seen, but he looks reasonable value this morning.
Mick Quinn’s stable has been going quite well lately and INVINCIBLE LARNE looks a bit overpriced in the 6f handicap at Kempton (7.45).
He ran very well on his return from a break over this trip at Chelmsford last time, having to wait for a run but finding plenty up the far rail to finish third in a good time figure.
That was probably a career-best effort and he runs off the same mark here. His stable has had a couple of winners both on the Flat and over jumps recently and Invincible Larne should go well again here.
Hugh's Best Bets (scale 1-5 points):
1pt win RIFLEMAN (6-1 bet365, 11-2 & 5-1 general)
1pt win INVINCIBLE LARNE (13-2 BetVictor, Coral, LadbrokesWilliam Hill Skybet,)
Hugh gives a daily indication of when the column will be published via Twitter.com (username is HughRacing). You can also listen to a Final Furlong Podcast special in which Hugh explains the methodology behind the column here.
You can view his monthly figures by clicking the links below:
2019 results ROI 1.16 +101.38pts
2018 results ROI 1.55 +345pts
2017 results ROI 1.46 +282pts
2016 results ROI 1.44 +281pts
2015 results ROI 1.34 +207pts
2014 results ROI 1.32 +199.79pts
2013 results ROI 1.32 +210pts
2012 results ROI 1.31 +222.65pts
2011 results ROI 1.28 +302.64 pts
2010 results ROI 1.23 +324.79 pts
2009 results ROI 1.26 +500.36 pts