St Leger - At The Races

St Leger Festival 2018 Trendspotting

    We've analysed all the data from past William Hill St Leger Festivals to reveal the facts no punter should bet without knowing. Covers every aspect including trainers, jockeys, the draw, betting and breeding.

In Trendspotting we’ll be highlighting some handy profitable statistics, trends and patterns to have emerged from this fantastic four-day festival during the last 10 years.

From winning trainers and jockeys, breeding and betting, through to the importance of the draw, all the relevant information will be brought to your attention in the quest of finding the path to profit.

But the first port of call for many is checking which trainers and jockeys proved themselves at this meeting in the past, and a glance at the table below highlights those handlers who have taken a shining to Town Moor’s winner’s enclosure.

TRAINERS

St Leger Festival 2008-2017

TrainerW-R£1Non-hcpHcp2yo3yo4yo+
J Gosden18-78+2110-608-189-266-363-16
S Bin Suroor17-73-613-434-309-203-195-34
R Varian12-43+559-283-152-124-106-21
R Fahey11-139-534-687-717-711-193-49
C Hills9-73+195-384-354-352-183-20
W Haggas9-47-74-255-224-143-172-16
A O’Brien8-55+38-550-03-154-331-7
L Cumani7-38+43-134-250-74-113-20
D Simcock7-44+32-175-270-52-75-32
J Noseda7-4004-263-143-121-133-15
Sir M Stoute7-38-45-272-110-44-243-10
M Bell6-40+291-225-183-163-170-7
R Hannon6-74-353-483-264-512-160-7
C Cox5-36+104-191-172-101-72-19
M Johnston5-118-981-494-690-554-401-23

JOHN GOSDEN

2017: 1-9
2016: 3-8
2015: 3-6
2014: 0-13
2013: 1-6

Just the one winner for John Gosden here in 2017, but it was enough to keep him on top of the leaderboard, with a healthy level stakes profit to boot. While 10 of Gosden’s 18 winners came in non-handicaps, they did show a loss of -£5, compared to handicaps at 8-18 (+£44). The Newmarket trainer also did well with runners that made the top two during their last three runs (17-60 +£34), while his record during the second half of the week on Friday and Saturday was 13-45 (+£33).

SAEED BIN SUROOR

2017: 1-2
2016: 0-1
2015: 2-7
2014: 1-4
2013: 3-12

Saeed Bin Suroor’s numbers have dwindled here in recent years, but he still sent out seven winners during the last five St Leger Festivals. One of those was Game Starter 12 months ago, who won prior to Doncaster, in the process making it a tally of 13-30 (+£21) for Suroor’s runners that made the top two before Doncaster. The yard’s juveniles showed a high strike-rate at 9-20 (+£4), as did those moving up one or two grades in class form last time.

ROGER VARIAN

2017: 3-8
2016: 3-8
2015: 3-9
2014: 1-6
2013: 1-2

Roger Varian is fast becoming the “trainer to follow” at the St Leger Festival, having recorded a hat-trick of trebles in recent years. Andrea Atzeni was aboard seven of Varian’s winners (7-24 +£24), while those not beaten more than 5l last time struck at 11-29 (+£66) – a similar tally to his runners that had 3-7 runs earlier that season. Don’t overlook those available at brig prices either, with runners at 12/1 or bigger connecting at 4-9 (+£58) – those shorter showed a loss (8-34 -£3).

RICHARD FAHEY

2017: 0-16
2016: 2-9
2015: 1-12
2014: 2-15
2013: 1-13

It was a rare blank for Richard Fahey at the 2017 St Leger Festival despite sending out 16 runners, although one area in which he did well here during the last 10 years was with his runners officially rated 80-91 at 10-68 (+£15). With the yard’s strike-rate fairly low at the meeting at around 8%, it may prove best combining specific areas when considering his string. For instance, sticking with his runners at this fixture over 5f-7f (11-111) in the same class or upped in grade from last time, while beaten no more than 10l when 16/1 or shorter last time, showed a return of 8-52 (+£24).

CHARLES HILLS

2017: 0-3
2016: 0-6
2015: 1-12
2014: 2-14
2013: 3-16

Charles Hills will be looking to stop a reverse trend which saw his winner tally reduce since his 2013 treble here. Indeed, Hills sent out just three runners at this fixture 12 months ago, suggesting a watching brief may prove wise throughout the coming week, though should there be signs of intent then consider those that hadn’t won during their previous three outings (9-71 +£21). Amazingly, Hills’s runners that triumphed during their last three runs finished 0-38 here.

Sir Michael Stoute is another trainer who has become more selective here in recent years, though he still had a winner from just four runners in 2017. One of the keys to his winners across the four days was the market, as those at 8/1 or shorter struck at 7-28 (+£6).

Elsewhere, Jeremy Noseda is a trainer who doesn’t really target this fixture anymore, having experienced six winners here from 2008-2012, compared to just one in eight since 2013. A better option could be tracking William Haggas, who did best in the non-Group races at 7-25 (+£17), while Luca Cumani also sent out seven winners during the last 10 years, all of whom were 3-4yos (7-23). David Simcock is another Newmarket handler to have trained seven winners at the St Leger Festival – each of whom came over 7f or further, with six racing in the same class as last time out.

As for “man of the moment”, Mark Johnston, then the record-breaking trainer sent out just five winners from 118 runners for a huge -£98 loss, with his juveniles blanking on 55 occasions (0-55). Aidan O’Brien on the other hand, had three 2yo winners at this meeting since 2008, in the process forming part of his eight-winner tally. As for where O’Brien’s profits came at the festival, then Group 2/Group 3 events proved very fruitful at 7-27 (+£50).

JOCKEYS

St Leger Festival 2008-2017

JockeyW-R£1Non-hcpHcpStraightRound
A Atzeni22-80+6813-429-389-5113-29
L Dettori20-112-315-735-3916-804-32
J Spencer18-111+715-6013-5112-806-31
W Buick18-127-1210-698-5813-905-37
R Moore17-107-2013-654-428-729-35
P Hanagan13-141-497-656-769-1084-33
S De Sousa11-102-496-445-588-693-33
J Doyle7-71-435-462-254-463-25
T Queally6-51-184-242-274-352-16
J Crowley5-49+93-242-254-341-15
O Murphy5-37-193-202-173-242-13
T Durcan4-19+262-92-103-111-8


ANDREA ATZENI

2017: 3-13
2016: 8-19
2015: 5-20
2014: 5-20
2013: 1-6

Andrea Atzeni has whizzed up the leading jockeys table at this meeting in recent years, courtesy of a whopping 21 winners during the last four St Leger Festival. It’s a haul that needs to be taken seriously ahead of the 2018 renewal where Atzeni will again be respected, especially when riding over trips of 6.5f or further (22-66 +£82) – over shorter Atzeni was 0-14.

Other areas where Atzeni excelled here was when riding for Roger Varian (7-24 +£24) and Luca Cumani (5-11 +£19), while runners that went off 12/1 or shorter last time hit the Town Moor bullseye at 22-59 (+£89).

FRANKIE DETTORI

2017: 1-11
2016: 2-5
2015: 3-9
2014: 0-9
2013: 0-4

With six winners here during the last three St Leger Festival, it will be a surprise if Frankie Dettori leaves Town Moor without at least one winner in 2018. The Italian is always to be taken seriously in any race, but more so when partnering a last-time-out winner at 12-37 (+£22), while his record on the straight track shone at 16-80 (+£6).

WILLIAM BUICK

2017: 0-0
2016: 1-12
2015: 2-18
2014: 1-17
2013: 4-15

With William Buick missing out on the 2017 St Leger Festival, he could be looking to make up for lost time at the 2018 renewal. If so, then Buick’s rides for John Gosden should be noted (8-39 +£6), along with those on juvenile runners 8-45 (+£4), while runners beaten under 4l last time (9-39 +£38) were also very profitable.

JAMIE SPENCER

2017: 0-0
2016: 1-15
2015: 3-11
2014: 2-10
2013: 2-10

As with William Buick, Jamie Spencer could be looking to make up for lost time having not ridden at last year’s St Leger Festival, and his past record at this fixture is one worthy of inspection. In fact, this festival is Spencer’s most rewarding for punters:

Spencer’s major British festivals (2008-2017)…

St Leger Festival 17% (+£72)
York Ebor 13% (-£7)
Ascot King George 11% (-£18)
Glorious Goodwood 7% (-£69)
Royal Ascot 7% (-£27)
Newmarket July 6% (-£20)
Epsom Derby 3% (-£47)
Newmarket Guineas 2% (-£57)

The long, galloping straight is ideal for Spencer’s late-attacking style, especially when picking off runners in large fields of nine runners or more where he delivered at 15-79 (+£88). Spencer also did well when riding for Michael Bell (4-16 +£16), Charles Hills (2-7 +£18) and Peter Chapple-Hyam (2-6 +£34).

RYAN MOORE

2017: 5-19
2016: 1-9
2015: N/A
2014: 3-19
2013: 1-19

Last year’s five-winner haul was a reminder to punters that Ryan Moore is a man to have onside at the big festivals, and he holds a good record with runners not beaten more than 4l last time at 15-73 (+£7). Those Moore rode last time also did well on Town Moor at (9-28 +£13), as did the clear favourites he partnered at 8-23 (+£5).

PAUL HANAGAN

2017: 1-6
2016: 1-12
2015: 2-15
2014: 3-18
2013: 1-14

Only once in the last eight St Leger Festivals did Paul Hanagan leave without a winner, though finding clues to a profit via his mounts proved more tricky. If there were any areas that Hanagan did better then it came in Class 2 events, while his ability smaller fields of six to eight runners returned figures of 8-36 (+£27).

SILVESTRE DE SOUSA

2017: 3-9
2016: 2-12
2015: 0-13
2014: 0-13
2013: 3-19

It could be a case of hot or cold regarding Silvester De Sousa’s performances at this festival. Last season De Sousa enjoyed a treble here, with his three winners coming in fairly small fields. In fact, following De Sousa at this meeting in races with only 10 runners or fewer saw him strike at 10-46, compared to 11 runners or more at 1-56. Another clue was to stick with those fancied in the market at 6/1 or shorter at 10-33 (+£7).

FORM

A horse’s last time out performance is one of the key elements when placing a bet, and knowing which racecourse and where they finished prior to this meeting helped point up some handy clues, as can be seen from the table below, listing the most influential tracks.

St Leger Festival 2008-2017

Last time out W-R £1 P/L
York45-542-181
Newmarket (July)43-321-29
Goodwood31-308-89
Ascot18-157-30
Newbury17-134+2
Haydock15-139+95
Sandown12-119-34
Chester8-114-46
Thirsk7-66+20
Kempton7-72-31
Ripon6-128-83

Clearly, York, Newmarket (July) and Goodwood were three reliable tracks in providing a solid pointer to this meeting courtesy of a whopping 123 winners. However, such winners came at a big level stakes loss, so a touch more digging is required in pointing the way to profit. When considering a runner from York and Goodwood, pay attention to those that ran in a Group 2 at those two venues last time at 23-143 (+£34), while a note should be made of runners that arrive at Doncaster having won at Newmarket (July) last time out (24-87 +£31).

Group/Listed Races

St Leger Festival 2008-2017

Last time out W-R £1 P/L
Won36-240-28
Runner-up12-130-60
Third11-111-9
Fourth10-89-20
Fifth to eighth19-202-57
Ninth or worse7-104-24
Debut or first run in Britain1-8-3
Up in trip from last time43-397-100
Same trip as last time36-328-92
Down in trip from last time16-153-8
Up in class by two grades or more from last time25-358-136
Up in class by one grade from last time25-189+4
Same class as last time32-241-64
Down in class by one or two grades from last time11-71+8
Down in class by three grades from last time2-19-12

What stands out from the above table is that by merely following runners in Group/Listed races at the St Leger Festival that made the top two last time out returned quite a hefty joint loss of -£88. In terms of value, it may be a better option considering those who finished third or fourth last time out, as they came in at 21-200, albeit for a lower loss of -£29.

As for the class angle, then runners moving up in class by just one grade from last time out – for instance, a horse that ran in a Group 3 before Group 2 company – returned a clear profit; an example from 2017 was Encore d’Or, who won the Listed Scarbrough Stakes at 13/2 having previously raced in a Class 2 handicap.

It’s also worth noting runners in Group/Listed events that arrived on Town Moor having been rested for 46-120 days as they showed at 29-171 (+£88).

Handicaps

St Leger Festival 2008-2017

Last time out W-R £1 P/L
Won29-289-106
Beaten short head, head or neck5-55-23
Beaten 1/4l to 3l39-347+34
Beaten 3.05l or more51-865-315
5-7 previous handicap runs21-167+24
Maiden15-128+16
Thirsk (7), Windsor (5)12-76+98

As for backers seeking juicy prices via the competitive handicaps at this meeting, then there could be some value in considering a runner beaten 1/4l to 3l last time, as they showed a nice profit here at 39-347 (+£34) – Spring Loaded (12/1), Buccaneers Vault (9/1) and Somewhere Secret (11/1) were several examples in 2017. It could also pay to consider a horse’s weight, as those in the 8st9lb to 8st12lb range proved well weighted in winning here at 32-301 (+£33).

DRAW

The figures below list how the draw has worked out on Doncaster’s straight course in 2018, along with the last five St Leger Festivals (with 14 runners or more).

Doncaster 2018 – Straight Course (14 runners or more)

5f: 11-17-4 (16 ran, soft)
6f: 12-4-2 (14 ran, good to form)
6f: 6-8-4 (16 ran, good to firm)
6f: 2-10-17 (17 ran, soft)
6f: 12-15-8 (14 ran, soft)
7f: 5-1-6 (14 ran, soft)
7f: 13-10-5 (14 ran, soft)
7f: 13-17-12 (17 ran, soft)
7f: 6-15-16 (15 ran, good to firm)
7f: 6-8-15 (16 ran, good to firm)
7f: 11-12-4 9( 14 ran, good to firm)
1m: 12-14-4 (15 ran, good to firm)
1m: 10-9-11 (20 ran, soft)
1m: 1-6-19 (20 ran, soft)

Summary: So far in 2018, 11 of the 14 races on the straight track with 14 runners or more went to a middle to high stall. It’s a theme that also occurred during the St Leger Festivals here in the past, as the following records show:

Recent St Leger Festivals – Straight Course (14 runners or more)

5f Handicap
2017: 3-2-11 (15 ran, soft)
2016: (fewer than 14 runners)
2015: 11-6-7 (15 ran, good)
2014: 4-10-2 (20 ran, good)
2013: 21-18-9 (16 ran, gd-sft)

5½f Portland Handicap
2017: 22-8-18 (22 ran, gd-sft)
2016: 12-1-9 (20 ran, good)
2015: 10-15-1 (20 ran, good)
2014: 15-9-21 (20 ran, good)
2013: 21-11-14 (21 ran, gd-sft)

6f Handicap
2017: (fewer than 14 runners)
2016: 10-9-12 (20 ran, good)
2015: 11-1-16 (20 ran, good)
2014: 3-8-14 (18 ran, good)
2013: 6-14-16 (15 ran, gd-sft)

6½f Nursery
2017: (fewer than 14 runners)
2016: fewer than 14 runners)
2015: 20-19-6 (19 ran, good)
2014: 11-3-13 (17 ran, good)
2013: 10-2-14 (14 ran, gd-sft)

6½f Weatherbys Stakes
2017: 3-15-2 (22 ran, good to soft)
2016: 16-3-22 (19 ran, good)
2015: 20-21-8 (22 ran, good)
2014: 20-11-6 (21 ran, good)
2013: 15-17-21 (21 ran, gd-sft)

7f Sceptre Stakes
2017: (fewer than 14 runners)
2016: (fewer than 14 runners)
2015: 4-15-8 (20 ran, good)
2014: 9-4-16 (15 ran, good)
2013: (fewer than 14 runners)

7f Handicap
2017: (fewer than 14 runners)
2016: (fewer than 14 runners)
2015: 4-15-8 (20 ran, good)
2014: (fewer than 14 runners)
2013: 1-10-8 (16 ran, gd-sft)

1m Classified Stakes
2017: 3-5-6 (14 ran, soft)
2016: 16-6-9 (14 ran, good to soft)
2015: 7-19-10 (16 ran, good)
2014: 2-16-17 (16 ran, good)
2013: 8-12-10 (15 ran, gd-sft)

Last year was only the third St Leger Festival during the last 21 years to have taken place on soft/heavy ground, an outcome that saw low numbers enter the frame with three of the four big-field races going to stall 3. However, should normal service resume in decent ground greeting this year’s big-fields, then middle to high stalls may prevail. A good way of seeing if the bias is in effect is to look out for early signs on day one.

BREEDING

Leading sires at Doncaster 2015–2018

SireW-R£15f-6.5f7f-1m1m2f- 1m4fGood/Good-firmGood-soft/Soft
Kodiac20-141-1313-802-462-911-989-43
Dark Angel20-149-84-4714-852-1713-907-59
Dubawi16-115-512-105-548-429-737-42
Cape Cross15-55+391-27-215-2310-415-14
Exceed And Excel15-138-709-826-500-611-974-41
Pivotal14-103-54-405-395-229-535-50
Oasis Dream14-98-559-365-380-228-626-36
Shamardal12-86-335-213-414-238-574-29
Iffraaj11-85-264-277-390-178-493-36
Mastercraftsman11-77-261-52-237-428-553-22
New Approach10-53-40-42-208-246-324-21
Invincible Spirit10-115-33-436-491-216-694-46
Acclamation10-132-216-693-521-119-891-43

Kodiac has been the big mover on the Doncaster leaderboard in recent times, and while his stock won on a fast surface, they proved best when the ground was on the soft side here. This was proven 12 months ago when he was responsible for Elithea winning the 6.5f nursery at 8/1 on good to soft. Kodiac has some exciting entries for Doncaster, including Fairyland and Kodyanna in Thursday’s valuable Weatherbys 2-Y-O Stakes.

On the same number of winners as Kodiac in the leaderboard is Dark Angel, whose progeny were seen to best effect over trips of 7f-1m on Town Moor, while Cape Cross’s youngsters showed a clear level stakes profit over all distances and ground.

As for the major Group races, then it could be worth giving the following sires a second look throughout the four days, as they provided the most recent Group winners in 2018.

Group races in 2018 - all tracks (GB & Ireland)

Galileo 16-115 (-£58)
Dubawi 9-59 (-£10)
Sea The Stars 9-26 (-£7)

Although missing out in the Doncaster leaderboard, Galileo still enjoyed another productive season with his progeny on Group races – Order Of St George, Kew Gardens and Forever Together, who all triumphed over the longer trips.

Dubawi has also been among the Group winners in 2018, and his runners deserve a second look at Doncaster, where he’s sired the third-most number of winners since 2015. His stock also prefer the longer trips, such as Wild Illusion, who landed the Nassau Stakes (1m2f), while Old Persian took the recent Great Voltigeur Stakes at York and heads for Saturday’s St Leger.

BETTING

St Leger Festival 2008-2017

Clear/joint favourite Wins-Runs £1 P/L
Overall97-311+13
Non-handicap63-168+21
Handicap34-143-9
Group 15-12+7
Group 224-62+6
Group 30-7-7
Listed7-19+6
2yo42-108+8
3yo30-108-1
4yo14-50+11
5yo+11-45-5

Following the favourite blind at this meeting has proven a profitable tactic down the years, as was witnessed 12 months ago when the market leader won 10 of the 30 races for a narrow +£1 profit. While that profit was small, it still remains a rarity for the jolly to come out in front at any major festival, as can be seen below.

Favourites at major Flat festivals 2009-2018

Second favourite (incl joint) Wins-Runs £1 P/L
St Leger80-247+19
Royal Ascot87-290+15
Glorious Goodwood99-346+13
Galway85-270-14
King George Ascot46-157-15
Irish Guineas42-141-17
Newmarket July54-206-22
Epsom Derby37-136-24
York Ebor50-209-26
Newmarket Guineas35-134-30
Irish Derby64-215-39

Clearly, favourites boast a terrific record at this meeting, but it’s worth remembering that only those in non-handicaps (+£21) showed a clear profit to level stakes compared to handicaps (-£9). As for the areas jollies struck in non-handicaps, then stick with those that either won or were beaten more than 3l last time as they struck here at 51-121 (+£33) – favourites beaten more narrowly by a short head up to 3l last time came in at only 10-39 (-£10).

St Leger Festival 2008-2017

Second favourite (incl joint) Wins-Runs £1 P/L
Overall39-262-72
Non-handicap24-149-49
Handicap15-113-23
Group 10-12-12
Group 214-58+1
Group 31-6-2
Listed3-16-1
2yo13-95-39
3yo8-66-27
4yo9-42+3
5yo+9-59-9

Such convincing success for favourites naturally counted against their deputies occupying second place in the market. If there was a way of following second favs, then Thursday proved kindest at 14-58 (+£13).

Knowing when to side with a favourite can also be handy when playing the Placepot, especially when using the jolly as a “banker” in a perm, and the following analysis highlights races in which the both the first two in the market performed well in recent years here.

Such patterns involving those at the head betting are just some approaches to be considered with a Placepot – or even for those looking to bet each-way – as the following analysis reveals a number of recent trends to have favoured certain runners making the frame, such as Wednesday’s Scarbrough Stakes, where 25 of the 30 placed runners were officially rated 101 or higher.

THE DONNY PLACEPOT

Wednesday

Day One’s Totepool dividends (2008-2017):
£1,010; £232; £231; £166; £374; £571; £134; £220; £270; £240.

1:50: 6f EBF Conditions Stakes

Of the last 19 placed runners during the last 10 years…

15 had a maximum of four career runs
13 were drawn in stalls 1-3
13 were officially rated 101 or had no rating – those between were 6-32
13 arrived via Goodwood, Newmarket (July), Newbury, Ripon or York
12 ran in the same class or were dropped in class from last time
T Dascombe (2-4) had two placed.

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
9/4 or shorter: 4-14
5/2 to 7/1: 10-18
15/2 or bigger: 2-24

Favourites place record: 5-10
Second-favourites place record: 5-10

PLACEPOT TIP: Respect those officially rated 101 or more.

2:25: 7f Nursery

Of the last 29 placed runners during the last 10 years…

27 ran over 7f or shorter last time; those down in trip were 2-13
25 carried 8st10lb or more
22 ran during the last 16-60 days
M Bell (3-5), C Hills (2-4), B Meehan (2-2), K Ryan (2-7) and E Dunlop (2-2) all had two placed

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
13/8 to 9/2: 9-17
5/1 to 8/1: 7-27
17/2 to 12/1: 9-22
14/1 or bigger: 4-37

Favourites place record: 6-9
Second-favourites place record: 2-8

PLACEPOT TIP: Be wary of runners dropping in trip.

3.00: 5f Scarbrough Stakes

Of the last 30 placed runners during the last 10 years…

24 were 2-5yos
23 were officially rated 101 or higher
22 ran during the last 11-45 days
22 had 1-5 career wins in Britain
18 arrived via Goodwood (6), York (5), Beverley (4) & Newmarket July (3)
R Cowell (5-7), B Smart (3-8), C Cox (2-4), R Varian (2-3) & J Noseda (2-3) had 14 placed between them

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
6/4 to 11/4 or shorter: 6-10
3/1 to 7/1: 14-29
17/2 or bigger: 9-59

Favourite placed: 6-9
Second favourite placed: 4-9

PLACEPOT TIP: Stick to the classier runners rated 101 or higher.

3.35: 1m Legends Classified Stakes

Of the last 21 placed runners during the last seven years…

20 arrived via a handicap
19 were 4-7yos
17 were officially rated 69-70
13 won over 1m
3 were ridden by G Duffield

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
5/1 or shorter: 5-9
11/2 to 9/1: 5-23
10/1 to 22/1: 11-50
25/1 or bigger: 0-25

Favourites place record: 6-10
Second-favourites place record: 2-6

PLACEPOT TIP: Fancied runners did well.

4:05: 1m4f Fillies’ Hcp

Of the last 5 placed runners during the last two years…

4 were officially rated 86 or higher
4 finished third to sixth last time out
4 won 0-1 handicaps
3 returned 10/1 or bigger

Favourites place record: 2-2
Second-favourites place record: 2-6

PLACEPOT TIP: A fairly new race, but consider banking on the favourite.

4:40: 1m2f Conditions Stakes

Of the last 17 placed runners during the last 10 years…

16 were 3-4yos
14 arrived via Sandown (3), Goodwood (3), Haydock (2), Windsor (2), Epsom (2) & York (2)
13 ran over 1m2f or shorter last time (13-30) – others were 4-18
10 ran in a Class 2 or Class 3 race last time (10-18)
Last time out winners were placed at 5-8
S Bin Suroor (3-9), R Varian was 2-2.

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
9/4 or shorter: 7-14
5/2 to 6/1: 4-14
13/2 to 12/1: 4-13
14/1 or bigger: 2-9

Favourites place record: 5-10
Second-favourites place record: 4-10

PLACEPOT TIP: Be wary of those arriving from a Group race.

Thursday

Day Two’s Totepool dividends (2016-2007):
£401; £27; £5,101; £1,270; £746; £83; £911; £11; £35; £634.

1.50: 6.5f Fillies’ Nursery

Of the last 35 placed runners during the last 10 years…

28 were officially rated 75 or higher
24 won just once during their career in Britain
20 ran in a nursery last time (20-69) – others were 15-80
20 arrived via Newmarket July (8), Ripon (4), Salisbury (4), Leicester (4)
17 won last time out
R Fahey (4-9), R Eddery (3-3), P Cole (2-7), K Burke (3-4)

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
7/4 to 9/2: 6-11
5/1 to 10/1: 16-42
11/1 to 20/1: 8-54
22/1 or bigger: 5-42

Favourites place record: 7-12
Clear second-favourites place record: 4-8

PLACEPOT TIP: The first two in the betting proved reliable.

2.25: Group 2 May Hill Stakes 1m

Of the last 25 placed runners during the last 10 years…

24 won 1-2 races in Britain
21 won during their last three runs
20 were beaten no more than 3l last time
11 arrived via Newmarket July (10-23)
R Hannon (2-5), C Appleby (2-2), S Bin Suroor (2-3), J Gosden (2-4), M Johnston (2-3)

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
9/4 or shorter: 6-9
5/2 to 8/1: 8-23
17/2 to 20/1: 9-31
22/1 or bigger: 2-13

Favourite/joint finished: 7-10
Second favourites finished: 4-9

PLACEPOT TIP: Favourites did better than second favourites.

3.00 Group 2 Park Hill Stakes 1m6f

Of the last 29 placed runners during the last 10 years…

23 arrived via Goodwood (7), York (6), Newmarket July (4), Epsom (3) & Curragh (2)
19 were 3yos (19-47, 40%) – others were 7-53 (13%)
18 won during their last three runs
17 ran during the last 21-45 days
Those that ran in a Group 1 last time were placed at 6-8
J Gosden (4-9), Sir M Stoute (3-7), A O’Brien (3-7), R Beckett (3-6)

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
Evens to 5/2: 7-9
11/4 to 11/2: 6-18
6/1 to 16/1: 11-39
18/1 or bigger: 5-34

Favourite finished: 6-10
Second favourites finished: 4-8

PLACEPOT TIP: Stick with 3yos.

3.35: Weatherbys Stakes 6.5f

Of the last 30 placed runners during the last 10 years…

27 were males
23 arrived via York (15), Newmarket July (6)
23 ran in a Class 1 or 2 race last time
22 ran in a race worth more than £13k last time (22-94) – others were 7-107
20 were officially rated 91 or higher
18 ran during the last 16-25 days
17 raced during the last 16-25 days
R Fahey (4-35), J Noseda (3-4), W Haggas (2-3), H Palmer (2-2)

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
6/1 or shorter: 9-21
7/1 to 10/1: 4-21
12/1 to 33/1: 14-101
40/1 or bigger: 3-59

Favourites place record: 7-10
Second-favourites place record: 1-8

PLACEPOT TIP: Consider those that ran in a race worth more than £13k last time.

4:05: Lady Riders Handicap 6f

Only one renewal.

4:40: Mechanical Facilities Handicap 1m2f

Of the last 26 placed runners during the last 10 years…

25 ran in a handicap last time
23 were officially rated 92-103
23 had 1-13 handicap runs (23-62) – others were 3-23
23 were beaten fewer than 10l last time
21 ran in a Class 2 race last time
S Bin Suroor (2-8), W Haggas (2-4), C Hills (2-2), J Noseda (2-3)

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
7/4 to 11/2: 16-31
6/1 to 10/1: 8-26
11/1 or bigger: 2-28

Favourites place record: 5-10
Second-favourites place record: 6-10

PLACEPOT TIP: The big Newmarket stables did well.

Friday

Day Three’s Totepool dividends (2016-2007):
£6; £1,079; £56; £156; £202; £109; £193; £203; £2,026; £1,003

1.50: Group 3 Sceptre Stakes 7f

Of the last 29 placed runners during the last 10 years…

27 had never won a Class 1 race
24 made the top five last time
21 had 0-1 wins over 7f
16 arrived via Goodwood (7), Newmarket Rowley (3), York (3) & Pontefract (3)
R Varian (3-4), M Botti (3-7), L Cumani (2-3) & W Haggas (2-6)

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
4/1 or shorter: 8-15
9/2 to 8/1: 6-20
17/2 to 14/1: 8-28
22/1 or bigger: 7-64

Favourites place record: 4-10
Second favourites place record: 5-10

PLACEPOT TIP: Ignore those outside the top five last time.

2.25: Group 2 Flying Childers 5f

Of the last 29 placed runners during the last 10 years…

25 had 3-6 career runs in Britain
23 arrived via York (13), Newbury (4), Newmarket July (3) & Goodwood (3)
21 were officially rated 99 or higher
21 ran during the last 16-45 days
R Hannon (4-5)

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
9/2 or shorter: 9-19
5/1 to 11/1: 14-35
12/1 to 25/1: 4-29
22/1 or bigger: 2-20

Favourites finished: 5-11
Second favourites finished: 3-12

PLACEPOT TIP: Richard Hannon’s runners did well.

3.00: Mallard Handicap 1m6f

Of the last 31 placed runners during the last 10 years…

27 won a handicap
23 were officially rated 86-98
23 moved up in trip from last time
21 finished in the top five last time
20 arrived via York (12), Haydock (4) & Chester (4)
J Goldie (4-5), M Johnston (4-11), J Fanshawe (2-4), Sir M Stoute (2-4) & D Simcock (2-3), A King (2)

4/1 or shorter: 5-9
9/2 to 8/1: 11-33
17/2 to 20/1: 12-53
22/1 or bigger: 2-18

Favourites/joint place record: 6-13
Second-favourites place record: 3-8

PLACEPOT TIP: Be careful of seconds and thirds from last time out (2-23).

3.35: Group 2 Doncaster Cup 2m2f

Of the last 27 placed runners during the last 10 years…

22 were beaten no more than 5l last time (22-44) – others were 5-43
19 arrived via York (13) or Goodwood (6)
18 ran in a Group race last time (18-48) – others were 9-39
3yos were placed 5-6
Sir M Prescott (3-7), J Fanshawe (2-2), A O’Brien (2-2), Sir M Stoute (2-3), D Simcock (2-4)

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
4/1 or shorter: 12-17
9/2 to 8/1: 11-27
17/2 or bigger: 4-44

Favourite/joint finished: 7-10
Second favourites finished: 5-10

PLACEPOT TIP: Respect runners beaten under 5l last time.

4:05: Flying Scotsman Listed Stakes 7f

Of the last 18 placed runners during the last 10 years…

18 had 0-1 UK runs
16 ran in a non-Group race last time
15 ran over 7f last time
14 made the top two last time out
13 arrived via Newbury (5), Newmarket July (6) or York (2)

Placed runners breakdown of odds:

9/4 or shorter: 7-11
5/2 to 8/1: 8-23
17/2 or bigger: 3-22

Favourites place finished: 6-10
Second favourites finished: 6-11

PLACEPOT TIP: Look for those that ran in a handicap last time.

4.40: EBF Maiden Stakes 7f

New race

Saturday

Final day’s Totepool dividends (2016-2007):
£112; £236; £176; £14; £39; £55; £210; £238; £1,392; £110.

1.50: Portland Handicap 5.5f

Of the last 40 placed runners during the last 10 years…

37 ran in a Class 2 or lower last time
37 ran in handicap last time
27 were drawn in stall nine or higher
26 had 2-4 career wins
25 were 4-5yos
24 were officially rated 93-97
22 ran arrived via York (10), Ripon (6), Haydock (6)
K Ryan (6-22), G Baker (4-5), R Varian (3-5), T Easterby (2-11), D Marnane (2-2), R Harris (2-9)

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
6/1 or shorter: 6-10
13/2 to 11/1: 8-42
12/1 to 20/1: 18-80
22/1 or bigger: 8-77

Favourite/joint finished: 6-13
Second favourites finished: 2-8

PLACEPOT TIP: Consider those officially rated 93-97.

2.25: Group 2 Park Stakes 7f

Of the last 27 placed runners during the last 10 years…

24 were officially rated 109 or higher
23 raced over 7f or further last time
23 were placed during their last three runs
21 were 4-6yos
20 were beaten under 4l last time
17 arrived via Goodwood (11) or Newbury (7)
J Noseda (2-5), E Lynam (2-4), C Cox (2-4), D Simcock (2-4), W Haggas (2-3) & C Wall (2-2)

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
7/2 or shorter: 11-16
4/1 to 8/1: 9-31
9/1 or bigger: 7-40

Favourites finished: 7-10
Second favourites finished: 3-11

PLACEPOT TIP: Be wary of the first two in the betting.

3.00 Group 2 Champagne Stakes 7f

Of the last 19 placed runners during the last 10 years…

16 were placed last time
16 ran over 7f last time
15 came via York (4), Goodwood (5), Newmarket July (2), Sandown (2), Curragh (2)
11 won over 7f A O’Brien (4-8), S Bin Suroor (3-4), C Appleby (2-4) & W Haggas (2-3)

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
11/4 or shorter: 11-15
3/1 to 8/1: 7-22
17/2 or bigger: 1-22

Favourite/joint finished: 8-11
Second favourites finished: 5-10

PLACEPOT TIP: Consider banking on the favourite.

3.35: Group 1 St Leger Stakes

Of the last 29 placed runners during the last 10 years…

28 ran in a Group race last time
27 had an official rating of 108 or more
24 made the top three last time
18 came via York (8), Goodwood (7), Curragh (4)
A O’Brien (6), J Gosden (5), Sir M Stoute (4), R Beckett (3) and S Bin Suroor (2)

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
7/2 or shorter: 9-16
4/1 to 8/1: 11-25
17/2 to 20/1: 6-31
22/1 or bigger: 3-28

Favourite finished: 7-11

Second favourites finished: 5-13

PLACEPOT TIP: Stick to those with a top three finish last time.

4.10: Nursery 1m

Of the last 28 placed runners during the last 10 years…

27 were males
25 had 0-1 UK career wins
25 had never won a nursery
22 made the last two last time
20 had never raced over 1m
19 made their nursery debut
J Gosden (4-4), R Hannon (3-5), L Cumani (2-2), P Cole (2-2)

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
7/2 or shorter: 13-17
9/2 to 8/1: 8-26
17/2 to 20/1: 5-34
22/1 or bigger: 2-16

Favourites/joint place record: 10-12
Second favourites place record: 4-9

PLACEPOT TIP: Avoid those that won a nursery.

4.45: Handicap 1m

Of the last 30 placed runners during the last 10 years…

29 ran in a handicap last time
28 were officially rated 93-104
24 ran in a Class 2 event last time
24 hadn’t raced during the last 21 days
23 ran over 1m last time
23 were beaten over 2l-10l last time
21 were drawn in stalls 6 or higher
21 arrived via York (8), Ascot (6), Goodwood (5), Haydock (5)
20 were 3-4yos (20-47) – others were 10-58
17 won during their last three runs (17-38) – others were 13-67
S Bin Suroor (5-7), L Cumani (3-6), M Tregoning (2-7), D O’Meara (2-6)

Placed runners breakdown of odds:
7/1 or shorter: 20-42
15/2 to 14/1: 8-34
14/1 or bigger: 2-29

Favourites/joint place record: 7-11
Second favourites place record: 4-10

PLACEPOT TIP: Younger runners did well.